Arbitrage

When to Use#

User is evaluating an apparent price gap, hedge, surebet, basis trade, multi-leg basket, or cross-venue spread. Agent handles fee-aware arbitrage math, execution planning, settlement checks, and fast rejection of fake edge.

Architecture#

Memory lives in ~/arbitrage/. If ~/arbitrage/ does not exist, run setup.md. See memory-template.md for structure.

text

~/arbitrage/
├── memory.md         # Preferences, constraints, and activation rules
├── opportunities.md  # Active ideas, status, and next checks
├── venue-notes.md    # Withdrawal, fill, and settlement notes by venue
└── archive/          # Old opportunities and retired notes

Quick Reference#

TopicFileSetup guidesetup.mdMemory templatememory-template.mdLocked Spread Protocolworkflow.mdFee-aware formulascalculator.mdVenue and settlement checksvenue-checks.mdScenario playbooksplaybooks.mdSafe language and disclaimerslegal.md

Requirements#

• No credentials required
• No extra binaries required
• Live data only when the user provides it or explicitly asks you to fetch it

Locked Spread Protocol#

Use the full protocol in workflow.md. At minimum, every opportunity passes these gates:

1. Confirm the legs really describe the same economic outcome
2. Normalize prices, fees, financing, transfer, and timing costs with calculator.md
3. Decide whether the position is fully locked, soft-locked, or only expected value
4. Check venue rules, fill depth, and settlement mechanics with venue-checks.md
5. Classify the trade and explain the remaining failure modes before discussing size

Core Rules#

1. Define the Exact Arbitrage#

• Write each leg with venue, instrument, side, price, size limit, timestamp, and settlement rule
• If the legs do not resolve to the same outcome, currency, or unit of risk, it is not arbitrage yet

2. Normalize Every Dollar of Friction#

• Always include fees, spread, gas, borrow, financing, FX, transfer, and any user-stated tax or settlement drag
• Use calculator.md to convert headline edge into net edge before calling anything profitable

3. Sequence for Fill Risk, Not for Hope#

• Identify the constrained leg first: shallow book, max bet, slow venue, borrow dependence, or promo cap
• Prefer structures that can be locked immediately; otherwise label them soft lock or directional exposure

4. Treat Settlement as First-Class Risk#

• Compare rules, expiry, void conditions, collateral type, withdrawal limits, transfer time, and counterparty exposure
• Use venue-checks.md and playbooks.md whenever the opportunity crosses venues or products

5. Reject Fake Edge Fast#

• Stale quotes, hidden min or max size, promo-only pricing, mismatched markets, and low depth are default failure modes
• If the residual risk is execution, model drift, or rule mismatch rather than a true lock, say so explicitly

6. Output a Decision Memo, Not Hype#

• Return the classification, net edge, max realistic size, required sequence, open checks, and kill conditions
• Good output ends with a clear next action: proceed, verify one item, downgrade to watchlist, or reject

7. Analysis Never Becomes Advice#

• Never call a trade risk-free, guaranteed, or suitable for the user personally
• Provide analysis and trade structure only; do not execute trades or give portfolio-specific recommendations

Opportunity Types#

TypeTypical SetupWhat Makes It RealCross-venue spotBuy cheaper on venue A, sell higher on venue BEnough depth, transferable inventory, fees coveredSurebet or matched bookOpposite sides across books or exchangesImplied probability sum below 100 percent after feesPrediction market basketBuy outcomes whose total cost is below guaranteed payoutResolution rules and outcome partition match exactlyBasis or carrySpot versus future, perp, or synthetic hedgeFunding, carry, borrow, and expiry all modeledRetail or pricing mismatchSame item or service priced differently by channelShipping, returns, fraud, tax, and inventory verified

Arbitrage Traps#

TrapWhy It FailsBetter MoveMatching names instead of resolution rulesSimilar labels can settle differentlyCompare exact payout and settlement languageUsing top-of-book onlyApparent edge disappears after first fillCalculate size against real depthIgnoring transfer timeEdge can vanish before hedge arrivesPrice latency as a cost, not a noteForgetting limits and KYCOne leg fills, the other is capped or blockedCheck limits, region, and account status firstTreating rebates as guaranteedRebates or promos can change net economicsSeparate hard edge from conditional incentivesMixing currencies looselyFX and spread can erase edgeConvert every leg into one base currencyCalling EV arbitragePositive EV is not a locked spreadLabel it expected value, not arbitrageOverstating sizeThe shallowest leg defines realistic capacitySize to the weakest link

Scope#

This skill ONLY:

• Analyzes arbitrage structures and net economics
• Stores user-stated constraints in ~/arbitrage/
• Uses its own auxiliary files for formulas, venue checks, and playbooks
• References timestamps and missing inputs when data may be stale

This skill NEVER:

• Executes real trades, transfers, or withdrawals
• Uses exchange keys, broker credentials, or wallet secrets
• Calls an opportunity risk-free or guaranteed
• Gives personalized financial, tax, or legal advice

Security & Privacy#

Data that leaves your machine:

• None by default
• If the user explicitly asks for live public data, only the requested symbols, markets, or venue pages needed for the analysis

Data that stays local:

• Preferences, venue notes, and working opportunity notes in ~/arbitrage/

This skill does NOT:

• Store credentials
• Read unrelated files
• Make undeclared network requests

Related Skills#

Install with clawhub install <slug> if user confirms:

• trading - technical analysis, risk framing, and trade planning language
• trader - disciplined execution mindset and position management basics
• pricing - pricing logic when the opportunity is a commercial mismatch rather than a market trade
• invest - long-horizon investing context when the user is mixing arbitrage with portfolio decisions

Feedback#

• If useful: clawhub star arbitrage
• Stay updated: clawhub sync