Betting

When to Use#

Betting questions involving sports, props, parlays, exchanges, or prediction-style tickets where price, edge, and stake size matter. Agent handles market normalization, implied probability math, line comparison, sizing discipline, and quick rejection of bad bets.

Architecture#

Memory lives in ~/betting/. If ~/betting/ does not exist, run setup.md. See memory-template.md for structure.

text

~/betting/
├── memory.md        # Preferences, books, and activation rules
├── tickets.md       # Active or reviewed bets and follow-ups
├── market-notes.md  # Sports, books, and recurring edge notes
└── archive/         # Old tickets and retired observations

Data Storage#

• ~/betting/memory.md stores activation rules, preferred sports, and user-stated constraints
• ~/betting/tickets.md stores active or reviewed ticket notes when the user wants tracking
• ~/betting/market-notes.md stores recurring market observations that improve future analysis
• ~/betting/archive/ stores older notes that no longer need to stay hot

Quick Reference#

TopicFileSetup guidesetup.mdMemory templatememory-template.mdClean Ticket Protocolworkflow.mdMarket integrity checksmarket-checks.mdBankroll and sizing rulessizing.mdReusable ticket memoticket-template.mdFast rejection listred-flags.md

Requirements#

• No account auth required
• No extra binaries required
• Live odds or injury news only when the user provides data or explicitly asks to fetch public information
• The user is responsible for legal age, jurisdiction, operator rules, and local compliance

Clean Ticket Protocol#

Use the full workflow in workflow.md. Every ticket should pass this order:

1. Define the exact market, book, line, price, stake, and settlement rule
2. Normalize odds and break-even probability with sizing.md
3. Check market integrity, limits, and void rules with market-checks.md
4. Run the fast rejection list in red-flags.md
5. Return an analysis memo using ticket-template.md: positive edge, reduce size, wait, or pass

Core Rules#

1. Price Comes Before Opinion#

• Convert every bet into implied probability and break-even price before discussing narratives
• If the user only has a take and no number, build the number first or state that the edge is unproven

2. Markets Must Match Exactly#

• Team names, alternate lines, overtime rules, void rules, and player participation terms must refer to the same economic outcome
• If two tickets settle differently, they cannot be compared as if they were the same bet

3. Size Last, Not First#

• Do not discuss stake sizing until price, edge, limits, and failure modes are clear
• Use sizing.md to frame analytical stake ranges, capped units, or pass; default conservative when inputs are weak

4. Default to No Bet Under Unclear Edge#

• Missing injury status, stale odds, unknown limits, or hand-wavy probability estimates should end in wait or pass
• Good betting analysis is often the discipline to reject action, not to force it

5. Parlays Need Independent Legs#

• Treat correlated legs, same-game parlays, and market boosts as separate risk products, not free multiplier math
• If independence is unclear, label correlation risk and avoid fake expected value claims

6. Live Betting Needs Latency Awareness#

• For live markets, ask when the quote was seen, what triggered the move, and whether the book can still be hit
• If latency or suspension likely invalidates the number, downgrade the ticket immediately

7. Output a Ticket Memo, Not Hype#

• End with fair price, book price, edge estimate, maximum analytical size, kill conditions, and next action
• Never call a bet guaranteed, safe, lawful, or suitable for the user personally

Legal and Responsible Use#

• This skill provides informational analysis only, not legal, tax, financial, licensing, or gambling-compliance advice
• Do not help minors, self-excluded users, or users in prohibited jurisdictions place or access bets
• Do not suggest ways around KYC, AML, geo-blocking, self-exclusion, deposit limits, or operator rules
• Do not promote bonus abuse, affiliate links, referral deals, or language that frames gambling as income, investing, or debt recovery
• If legality, licensing, or operator compliance is unclear, stop at general information and tell the user to check local law or licensed counsel

Market Lens#

Market TypeWhat to Check FirstTypical Failure ModeSide or moneylineClosing context, overtime grading, price driftPaying extra vig for a story everyone already knowsSpread or handicapKey numbers, hooks, alternate linesComparing different point lines as if price alone matteredTotalPace, weather, lineup status, overtime ruleUsing stale assumptions after lineup or weather newsPropsMinutes, role, book limits, stat sourceTiny limits or rules that void on limited participationParlaysCorrelation, leg quality, hidden marginMultiple bad prices packaged as one exciting ticketExchange or prediction marketFees, liquidity, resolution languageCalling thin or ambiguous markets "edge"

Common Traps#

TrapWhy It FailsBetter MoveStarting with "Who wins?"Opinion without price does not tell whether the bet is goodAsk for line and odds firstComparing +120 to +120 across books blindlyRules and limits may differMatch settlement and max stake before comparingUsing full Kelly on shaky estimatesSmall model error can blow up bankrollDownshift to fractional Kelly or flat-unit sizeTreating promos as pure valueHidden rollover, min odds, or stake caps distort edgeSeparate hard edge from promo-only edgeChasing after line movementLate price often means the value is already goneReprice at current odds or passIgnoring correlation in parlaysLegs can move together and kill expected valuePrice legs independently and label correlation riskConfusing entertainment with edgeAction bias hides weak numbersBe explicit when the ticket is only for fun

Scope#

This skill ONLY:

• Analyzes bets, prices, and sizing discipline
• Stores user-stated preferences and notes in ~/betting/
• Uses workflow.md, market-checks.md, sizing.md, ticket-template.md, and red-flags.md for repeatable analysis
• Identifies when the right answer is no bet, smaller size, or wait

This skill NEVER:

• Places bets, logs into books, or moves funds
• Stores login details, wallet recovery phrases, or account recovery data
• Helps bypass age, jurisdiction, KYC, AML, or self-exclusion controls
• Promotes profit, certainty, or personalized financial suitability
• Hides uncertainty when lines, rules, or data are incomplete

Security & Privacy#

Data that leaves your machine:

• None by default
• If the user explicitly asks for live public information, only the markets, teams, players, or books needed for that request

Data that stays local:

• Preferences, tickets, and notes in ~/betting/

This skill does NOT:

• Store login details
• Read unrelated files
• Make undeclared network requests

Related Skills#

Install with clawhub install <slug> if user confirms:

• decide - structure tradeoffs and pass-or-proceed decisions without hype
• legal - tighten wording when the user asks about compliance, terms, or risk boundaries
• pricing - reason about price quality when the user needs cleaner expected value language
• trader - frame discipline, journaling, and risk control for repeated decision making

Feedback#

• If useful: clawhub star betting
• Stay updated: clawhub sync