Macro Regime Detector#

Identify the current US macroeconomic regime by synthesizing real-time treasury yields, GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, and commodity price signals from the Finskills API. Output a regime classification with an evidence-based rationale and asset allocation implications.

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Setup#

API Key required — Register at https://finskills.net to get your free key.

Header: X-API-Key: <your_api_key>

Get your API key: Register at https://finskills.net — free tier available, Pro plan unlocks real-time quotes, history, and financials.

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When to Activate This Skill#

Activate when the user:

• Asks "what macro regime are we in?"
• Asks how the current macro environment affects their portfolio or sector
• Wants to understand Fed policy implications, yield curve shape, or inflation trend
• Asks for an asset allocation view based on macro conditions
• Mentions recession risk, stagflation, reflation, or rate cycle questions

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Macro Regime Framework#

This skill classifies the US economy into one of six regimes:

RegimeGDP GrowthInflationRate DirectionRisk AssetsGoldilocksExpandingModerate (2–3%)Stable/FallingRisk-On ✅ReflationExpandingRising (3–5%)RisingCyclicals ✅OverheatingStrongHigh (>5%)Rising fastCommodities ✅StagflationSlowingHigh (>4%)ElevatedHard Assets ✅SlowdownDeceleratingFallingStableDefensives ✅RecessionContractingLow/DeflatingFallingCash/Bonds ✅

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Data Retrieval — Finskills API Calls#

Make the following calls (all free-tier endpoints):

1. US Treasury Rates (Yield Curve)#

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GET https://finskills.net/v1/free/macro/treasury-rates

Extract: 3m, 6m, 1y, 2y, 5y, 10y, 30y yields

Compute: 2y10y spread (primary inversion signal), 3m10y spread (recession predictor)

2. GDP Growth#

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GET https://finskills.net/v1/free/macro/gdp/US

Extract: latest GDP growth rate (QoQ annualized), trend direction (3-quarter comparison)

3. Inflation#

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GET https://finskills.net/v1/macro/inflation

Extract: CPI YoY, core CPI YoY, PCE YoY, trend (accelerating/stable/decelerating)

4. Interest Rates (Fed Policy)#

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GET https://finskills.net/v1/macro/interest-rates

Extract: Federal Funds Rate (current), last 6 rate decisions, trend (hiking/cutting/pausing)

5. Key Economic Indicators (FRED via free endpoint)#

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GET https://finskills.net/v1/free/macro/indicator/UNRATE

Extract: US unemployment rate (latest, 3-month trend)

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GET https://finskills.net/v1/free/macro/indicator/INDPRO

Extract: Industrial Production Index (latest YoY%)

6. Commodity Price Signals#

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GET https://finskills.net/v1/free/commodity/prices

Extract: Gold (safe haven demand), WTI Crude (inflation/demand signal), Copper (growth proxy)

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Analysis Workflow#

Step 1 — Yield Curve Classification#

Using treasury rates data:

SignalThresholdInterpretation2y10y spread> +50 bpsNormal — growth expected2y10y spread-25 to +50 bpsFlat — transition phase2y10y spread< -25 bpsInverted ⚠️ — recession risk elevated3m10y spread< 0 bpsClassic recession predictor (12–18 month lead)

Note the steepening/flattening trend direction (compare to 3 months ago if data allows).

Step 2 — Growth Assessment#

GDP SignalLabel> 3% annualizedStrong expansion1–3% annualizedModerate expansion0–1% annualizedStagnation< 0% (1 quarter)Contraction risk< 0% (2 quarters)Technical recession

Cross-check with: Industrial Production YoY, Unemployment trend.

Step 3 — Inflation Regime#

CPI YoYPCE YoYLabel< 2%< 2%Deflationary/below-target2–3%2–2.5%Target range (Goldilocks)3–5%2.5–4%Above-target, manageable> 5%> 4%High inflation

Classify trend: Rising / Stable / Falling (compare last 3 readings).

Step 4 — Fed Policy Stance#

Rate TrendDescription3+ consecutive hikesTightening cycleHold after hikesPause (peak rates)First cut after hikesPivot (easing begins)3+ consecutive cutsEasing cycleHold at low ratesAccommodative

Step 5 — Commodity Cross-Check#

• Gold rising + stocks flat or falling: Flight to safety, risk-off signal
• Oil rising + copper rising: Demand-driven inflation, growth-positive
• Oil rising + copper falling: Supply shock, stagflation signal
• Gold + bonds both rising: Deflation/recession fear

Step 6 — Regime Classification#

Score each indicator and use this decision matrix:

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IF GDP_expanding AND inflation_2-4% AND rates_stable: → GOLDILOCKS
IF GDP_expanding AND inflation_rising AND rates_rising: → REFLATION/OVERHEATING
IF GDP_slowing AND inflation_high AND rates_elevated: → STAGFLATION
IF GDP_slowing AND inflation_falling AND rates_cutting: → SLOWDOWN
IF GDP_contracting AND yield_curve_inverted: → RECESSION

Assign confidence: HIGH (3+ signals aligned), MEDIUM (2 signals), LOW (mixed signals).

Step 7 — Asset Allocation Implications#

For each regime, output the relative preference for major asset classes:

Asset ClassGoldilocksReflationStagflationSlowdownRecessionUS Equities✅ OW✅ OW❌ UW⚖️ N❌ UWGrowth Tech✅ OW⚖️ N❌ UW⚖️ N❌ UWEnergy/Materials⚖️ N✅ OW✅ OW❌ UW❌ UWDefensives❌ UW❌ UW✅ OW✅ OW✅ OWREITs✅ OW❌ UW❌ UW⚖️ N❌ UWLong Bonds❌ UW❌ UW❌ UW✅ OW✅ OWTIPS/I-Bonds⚖️ N✅ OW✅ OW❌ UW❌ UWGold❌ UW⚖️ N✅ OW✅ OW✅ OWCash❌ UW⚖️ N✅ OW✅ OW✅ OW

OW = Overweight | N = Neutral | UW = Underweight

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Output Format#

text

╔══════════════════════════════════════════════════╗
║       US MACRO REGIME REPORT  —  {DATE}         ║
╚══════════════════════════════════════════════════╝

🏛️ REGIME CLASSIFICATION: {REGIME NAME}
   Confidence: {HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW}
   Trend: {Deepening / Stable / Transitioning}

📊 MACRO DASHBOARD
  Treasury Yields:
    3M: {%}  |  2Y: {%}  |  5Y: {%}  |  10Y: {%}  |  30Y: {%}
    2Y–10Y Spread: {bps} ({normal/flat/inverted})
    3M–10Y Spread: {bps}

  Growth:
    GDP Growth:         {%} annualized ({direction})
    Industrial Prod:    {%} YoY
    Unemployment:       {%} ({trend})

  Inflation:
    CPI YoY:            {%}
    Core CPI YoY:       {%}
    PCE YoY:            {%}
    Trend:              {Rising / Stable / Falling}

  Fed Policy:
    Fed Funds Rate:     {%}
    Policy Stance:      {Tightening / Pause / Pivoting / Easing}
    Last Decision:      {hike/cut/hold} ({date})

  Commodity Signals:
    WTI Crude:  ${price} ({weekly change}%)
    Gold:       ${price} ({weekly change}%)
    Copper:     ${price} ({weekly change}%)
    Interpretation: {one-line signal}

🎯 ASSET ALLOCATION IMPLICATIONS
   Overweight:  {asset classes}
   Neutral:     {asset classes}
   Underweight: {asset classes}

📝 REGIME NARRATIVE
   {3–4 sentences describing the current macro environment, key risks,
    and what conditions would trigger a regime shift}

⚠️ WATCH — REGIME SHIFT TRIGGERS
   Bull shift if: {conditions}
   Bear shift if: {conditions}

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Limitations#

• GDP data has a 30–60 day reporting lag (advance estimate vs. final).
• This is a macro framework for portfolio positioning, not a market timing tool.
• Commodity prices can be noisy on short timeframes; use weekly/monthly trends.