Kalshi Crypto Correlation Trader#

This is a template.

The default signal uses a static BTC/ETH beta of 1.3 -- remix it with rolling correlation windows, multi-asset cointegration, or real-time price feed APIs.

The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview#

BTC and ETH are highly correlated, but ETH markets on Kalshi lag BTC moves by hours. This skill monitors BTC price-level markets as a leading indicator, computes ETH fair values using beta=1.3, and trades when ETH markets have not yet adjusted.

Key advantages:

• Well-documented correlation -- BTC/ETH beta is stable around 1.3
• ETH lags BTC -- retail-dominated Kalshi ETH markets update slowly
• Cross-asset signal -- uses BTC as a free leading indicator for ETH trades

Signal Logic#

Correlation Model#

1. Fetch BTC and ETH price-level markets
2. Compute BTC sentiment from average market probabilities
3. Apply beta=1.3 to derive ETH fair value adjustment
4. Compare adjusted fair value to ETH market price
5. Trade when |fair - market| >= entry_edge

Remix Ideas#

• Rolling beta: Compute 30-day rolling BTC/ETH beta from price data
• Multi-asset: Add SOL, AVAX correlations for broader signal
• Real-time feeds: Use CoinGecko/Binance API for live price correlation
• Regime detection: Different beta in bull vs bear markets

Risk Parameters#

ParameterDefaultNotesEntry edge10%Min fair-vs-market divergence to tradeExit threshold45%Sell when position price reaches thisMax position size$5.00 USDCPer marketMax trades per run3Rate limitingMax slippage15%Skip if slippage exceedsMin liquidity$0Disabled by default

Installation & Setup#

bash

clawhub install kalshi-crypto-correlation-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule#

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode#

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

ScenarioModeFinancial riskpython trader.pyDry runNoneCron / automatonDry runNonepython trader.py --liveLive (Kalshi via DFlow)Real USDC

The automaton cron is set to null -- it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials#

VariableRequiredNotesSIMMER_API_KEYYesTrading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEYYesBase58-encoded Solana private key for live trading.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)#

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes.

VariableDefaultPurposeSIMMER_CRYPTO_CORR_ENTRY_EDGE``0.10Min divergence between fair value and market to trigger tradeSIMMER_CRYPTO_CORR_EXIT_THRESHOLD``0.45Sell position when price reaches this levelSIMMER_CRYPTO_CORR_MAX_POSITION_USD``5.00Max USDC per tradeSIMMER_CRYPTO_CORR_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN``3Max trades per execution cycleSIMMER_CRYPTO_CORR_SLIPPAGE_MAX``0.15Max slippage before skipping (0.15 = 15%)SIMMER_CRYPTO_CORR_MIN_LIQUIDITY``0Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled)

Dependency#

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: hello@simmer.markets

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.