Kalshi Crypto Momentum Trader#

This is a template.

The default signal uses static 7d/30d momentum parameters -- remix it with live price API feeds, multiple timeframes, or volume-weighted momentum.

The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview#

Crypto markets on Kalshi price year-end targets. Price momentum (7d/30d trends) is a strong predictor of whether targets will be reached. This skill extrapolates recent price trends to compute probability that each target is hit by year-end.

Signal Logic#

Momentum Trend Model#

1. Compute 7-day and 30-day price change ratios for BTC/ETH
2. Extrapolate current trend to year-end using exponential projection
3. Compute probability of reaching each price target under trend assumption
4. Compare model probability to Kalshi market price
5. Trade when |model - market| >= entry_edge

Remix Ideas#

• Live price API: CoinGecko/Binance for real-time trend computation
• Multiple timeframe ensemble: 1d, 7d, 30d, 90d momentum signals
• Volume-weighted momentum: Higher conviction when volume confirms
• Mean-reversion overlay: Dampen extreme trend signals

Risk Parameters#

ParameterDefaultNotesEntry edge10%Min model-vs-market divergence to tradeExit threshold45%Sell when position price reaches thisMax position size$5.00 USDCPer marketMax trades per run3Rate limitingMax slippage15%Skip if slippage exceedsMin liquidity$0Disabled by default

Installation & Setup#

bash

clawhub install kalshi-crypto-momentum-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule#

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode#

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

ScenarioModeFinancial riskpython trader.pyDry runNoneCron / automatonDry runNonepython trader.py --liveLive (Kalshi via DFlow)Real USDC

The automaton cron is set to null -- it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials#

VariableRequiredNotesSIMMER_API_KEYYesTrading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEYYesBase58-encoded Solana private key for live trading.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)#

VariableDefaultPurposeSIMMER_CRYPTO_MOM_ENTRY_EDGE``0.10Min divergence to trigger tradeSIMMER_CRYPTO_MOM_EXIT_THRESHOLD``0.45Sell position when price reaches this levelSIMMER_CRYPTO_MOM_MAX_POSITION_USD``5.00Max USDC per tradeSIMMER_CRYPTO_MOM_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN``3Max trades per execution cycleSIMMER_CRYPTO_MOM_SLIPPAGE_MAX``0.15Max slippage before skippingSIMMER_CRYPTO_MOM_MIN_LIQUIDITY``0Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled)

Dependency#

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: hello@simmer.markets

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.