Kalshi Crypto Monotonicity Trader#

This is a template.

The default signal enforces monotonicity on crypto price-level bins -- remix it with real-time order book data, implied volatility surfaces, or cross-exchange price feeds.

The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview#

Crypto price-level markets on Kalshi price "Will BTC be above $X?" for various thresholds. By definition, P(BTC > $110k) >= P(BTC > $120k) because the first event subsumes the second. When the market violates this, we capture the arbitrage by buying the underpriced contract and selling the overpriced one.

Key advantages:

• Pure math arbitrage -- no model or opinion needed, just logical consistency
• Works for BTC and ETH -- any asset with multiple price-level markets
• Self-correcting -- violations close quickly, so early detection matters

Signal Logic#

Monotonicity Check#

1. Fetch all crypto price-level markets (BTC above $X, ETH above $Y)
2. Group by asset, sort by price level ascending
3. Verify P(above lower level) >= P(above higher level) for all pairs
4. When violation exceeds violation_threshold, generate paired trades

Example (with defaults)#

MarketLevelMarket PExpectedViolationBTC > $100k$100,00045%>= 35%--BTC > $110k$110,00035%>= 20%--BTC > $120k$120,00038%<= 35%3%

In the last row, P(>$120k) = 38% > P(>$110k) = 35%, violating monotonicity by 3%.

Remix Ideas#

• Order book depth: Weight violations by available liquidity at each level
• Implied vol surface: Use violation patterns to infer mispriced implied volatility
• Cross-exchange arb: Compare Kalshi levels to Deribit options strikes

Risk Parameters#

ParameterDefaultNotesViolation threshold3%Min probability gap to trigger tradeExit threshold45%Sell when position price reaches thisMax position size$5.00 USDCPer marketMax trades per run3Rate limitingMax slippage15%Skip if slippage exceedsMin liquidity$0Disabled by default

Installation & Setup#

bash

clawhub install kalshi-crypto-monotonicity-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule#

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode#

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

ScenarioModeFinancial riskpython trader.pyDry runNoneCron / automatonDry runNonepython trader.py --liveLive (Kalshi via DFlow)Real USDC

The automaton cron is set to null -- it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials#

VariableRequiredNotesSIMMER_API_KEYYesTrading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEYYesBase58-encoded Solana private key for live trading.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)#

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes.

VariableDefaultPurposeSIMMER_CRYPTO_MONO_VIOLATION_THRESHOLD``0.03Min probability gap between adjacent levels to trigger tradeSIMMER_CRYPTO_MONO_EXIT_THRESHOLD``0.45Sell position when price reaches this levelSIMMER_CRYPTO_MONO_MAX_POSITION_USD``5.00Max USDC per tradeSIMMER_CRYPTO_MONO_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN``3Max trades per execution cycleSIMMER_CRYPTO_MONO_SLIPPAGE_MAX``0.15Max slippage before skipping (0.15 = 15%)SIMMER_CRYPTO_MONO_MIN_LIQUIDITY``0Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled)

Dependency#

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: hello@simmer.markets

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.