Kalshi Econ Revision Drift Trader#

This is a template.

The default signal uses the well-documented CPI revision bias (+0.03 pp) to shift the fair probability distribution -- remix it with seasonal adjustment patterns, BLS methodology changes, or real-time nowcast data.

The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview#

BLS CPI initial releases are systematically revised upward by approximately 0.03 percentage points. Markets that resolve on the initial release effectively ignore this revision bias, creating a persistent edge. This skill shifts the CPI probability distribution by the revision bias and trades bins where the shift creates meaningful mispricing.

Key advantages:

• Documented statistical bias -- BLS revision history from 2000-2024 confirms the upward drift
• Structural edge -- as long as markets price off initial releases, the bias persists
• Directional prediction -- higher CPI bins are systematically underpriced
• No timing dependency -- the bias exists regardless of the current CPI level

Signal Logic#

Revision Drift Model#

1. Parse CPI bin markets and extract probability-weighted expected CPI mean
2. Compute "initial release" bin probabilities using normal distribution
3. Compute "revision-adjusted" bin probabilities by shifting mean +0.03 pp
4. Edge = revised_prob - market_price for each bin
5. Trade when |edge| >= entry_edge

Revision Statistics#

MetricValueSourceMean revision+0.03 ppBLS CPI revision history 2000-2024Revision std0.05 ppSame datasetDirectionUpwardConsistent across decadesImpactHigher bins underpricedShifts CDF right

Example#

If CPI market-implied mean is 2.80%:

BinInitial ProbRevised ProbRevision Edge< 2.0%5.5%4.9%-0.6%2.0-2.5%22.7%21.5%-1.2%2.5-3.0%38.3%38.2%-0.1%3.0-3.5%24.6%25.8%+1.2%> 3.5%8.9%9.6%+0.7%

Conviction-Based Sizing#

• conviction = min(|edge| / entry_edge, 2.0) / 2.0
• size = max($1.00, conviction * MAX_POSITION_USD)
• Larger edge = larger position, capped at MAX_POSITION_USD

Remix Ideas#

• Seasonal adjustment: CPI revisions vary by month (e.g., January effect)
• BLS methodology tracking: New CPI basket weights change revision patterns
• Nowcast overlay: Combine revision bias with Cleveland Fed CPI nowcast
• Multi-release: Track preliminary, final, and revised releases separately

Risk Parameters#

ParameterDefaultNotesEntry edge8%Min revised-vs-market divergence to tradeExit threshold45%Sell when position price reaches thisMax position size$5.00 USDCPer marketMax trades per run3Rate limitingMax slippage15%Skip if slippage exceedsMin liquidity$0Disabled by default

Installation & Setup#

bash

clawhub install kalshi-econ-revision-drift-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule#

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode#

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

ScenarioModeFinancial riskpython trader.pyDry runNoneCron / automatonDry runNonepython trader.py --liveLive (Kalshi via DFlow)Real USDC

The automaton cron is set to null -- it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials#

VariableRequiredNotesSIMMER_API_KEYYesTrading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEYYesBase58-encoded Solana private key for live trading.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)#

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes.

VariableDefaultPurposeSIMMER_ECON_REV_ENTRY_EDGE``0.08Min divergence between revised fair and market to trigger tradeSIMMER_ECON_REV_EXIT_THRESHOLD``0.45Sell position when price reaches this levelSIMMER_ECON_REV_MAX_POSITION_USD``5.00Max USDC per tradeSIMMER_ECON_REV_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN``3Max trades per execution cycleSIMMER_ECON_REV_SLIPPAGE_MAX``0.15Max slippage before skipping (0.15 = 15%)SIMMER_ECON_REV_MIN_LIQUIDITY``0Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled)

Dependency#

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: hello@simmer.markets

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.