Kalshi ETH Gas Correlation Trader#

This is a template. The default signal uses gas price regimes as a directional indicator -- remix it with live Etherscan gas API, EIP-1559 base fee tracking, or L2 activity metrics. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview#

High on-chain gas prices indicate strong demand for Ethereum block space (DeFi activity, NFT mints, token launches). This demand correlates positively with ETH price. This skill classifies gas into regimes and applies a directional bias to ETH price market probabilities.

Key advantages:

• Leading indicator -- gas spikes often precede price moves
• On-chain verifiable -- gas data is public and real-time
• Regime-based -- avoids noise by classifying into discrete regimes

Signal Logic#

Gas Regime Model#

1. Classify current gas price into regime (extreme/high/normal/low/dead)
2. Map regime to directional bias (+15% to -10%)
3. Apply bias to each ETH price market probability
4. Trade when |fair - market| >= entry_edge

Gas Regimes#

RegimeGas (gwei)BiasInterpretationExtreme>100+15%Very bullishHigh>50+8%BullishNormal>200%NeutralLow>10-5%BearishDead<10-10%Very bearish

Remix Ideas#

• Live Etherscan API: Real-time gas price feed instead of estimates
• EIP-1559 base fee: More accurate demand metric post-merge
• L2 activity: Track Arbitrum/Optimism activity for full picture
• DeFi TVL overlay: Combine gas with total value locked trends

Risk Parameters#

ParameterDefaultNotesEntry edge10%Min model-vs-market divergence to tradeExit threshold45%Sell when position price reaches thisMax position size$5.00 USDCPer marketMax trades per run3Rate limitingGas high threshold50 gweiAbove this = high demand regimeGas low threshold10 gweiBelow this = dead regime

Installation & Setup#

bash

clawhub install kalshi-eth-gas-correlation-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule#

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode#

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

ScenarioModeFinancial riskpython trader.pyDry runNoneCron / automatonDry runNonepython trader.py --liveLive (Kalshi via DFlow)Real USDC

Required Credentials#

VariableRequiredNotesSIMMER_API_KEYYesTrading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEYYesBase58-encoded Solana private key for live trading.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)#

VariableDefaultPurposeSIMMER_ETH_GAS_ENTRY_EDGE``0.10Min divergence to trigger tradeSIMMER_ETH_GAS_EXIT_THRESHOLD``0.45Sell position when price reaches this levelSIMMER_ETH_GAS_MAX_POSITION_USD``5.00Max USDC per tradeSIMMER_ETH_GAS_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN``3Max trades per execution cycleSIMMER_ETH_GAS_SLIPPAGE_MAX``0.15Max slippage before skipping (15%)SIMMER_ETH_GAS_MIN_LIQUIDITY``0Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled)SIMMER_ETH_GAS_HIGH_GWEI``50Gas threshold for high-demand regimeSIMMER_ETH_GAS_LOW_GWEI``10Gas threshold for dead regime

Dependency#

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: hello@simmer.markets

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.