Kalshi ETH Merge Momentum Trader#

This is a template. The default signal uses a static 0.5% annual burn rate -- remix it with live ultrasound.money data, dynamic burn rate tracking, or EIP-1559 base fee analysis. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview#

Post-merge Ethereum burns approximately 0.5% of its total supply annually through the EIP-1559 fee burn mechanism. When gas usage exceeds issuance to validators, ETH becomes net deflationary. This skill computes a deflation-adjusted fair value and trades when markets underprice this structural supply reduction.

Key advantages:

• Structural thesis -- supply reduction is mechanical, not speculative
• Time-sensitive -- longer time horizons amplify the deflation effect
• Verifiable -- burn rate data is on-chain and public

Signal Logic#

Deflation Model#

1. Compute deflation-adjusted price: adj = base * (1 + net_deflation * days/365 * 0.5)
2. Convert price target to fair probability using logistic model
3. Compare fair probability to market price
4. Trade when |fair - market| >= entry_edge

Remix Ideas#

• Live burn rate: Track ultrasound.money for real-time ETH burn data
• Dynamic issuance: Adjust for changing validator count
• Gas price correlation: Higher gas = higher burn = more deflation
• Macro overlay: Fed rate expectations affect crypto demand

Risk Parameters#

ParameterDefaultNotesEntry edge10%Min model-vs-market divergence to tradeExit threshold45%Sell when position price reaches thisMax position size$5.00 USDCPer marketMax trades per run3Rate limitingAnnual burn rate0.5%ETH supply burn rate assumptionBase ETH price$3500Current ETH price baseline

Installation & Setup#

bash

clawhub install kalshi-eth-merge-momentum-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule#

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode#

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

ScenarioModeFinancial riskpython trader.pyDry runNoneCron / automatonDry runNonepython trader.py --liveLive (Kalshi via DFlow)Real USDC

Required Credentials#

VariableRequiredNotesSIMMER_API_KEYYesTrading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEYYesBase58-encoded Solana private key for live trading.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)#

VariableDefaultPurposeSIMMER_ETH_MERGE_ENTRY_EDGE``0.10Min divergence to trigger tradeSIMMER_ETH_MERGE_EXIT_THRESHOLD``0.45Sell position when price reaches this levelSIMMER_ETH_MERGE_MAX_POSITION_USD``5.00Max USDC per tradeSIMMER_ETH_MERGE_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN``3Max trades per execution cycleSIMMER_ETH_MERGE_SLIPPAGE_MAX``0.15Max slippage before skipping (15%)SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_MIN_LIQUIDITY``0Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled)SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_BURN_PCT``0.5Annual ETH supply burn rate (%)SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_BASE_PRICE``3500Current ETH price baseline ($)

Dependency#

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: hello@simmer.markets

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.