Kalshi F1 Elimination Trader#

This is a template. The default signal uses static championship standings -- remix it with live F1 API data for real-time elimination detection as races complete. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview#

As the F1 season progresses, drivers become mathematically eliminated from the championship. A driver is eliminated when their maximum possible points (current + MAX_POINTS_PER_RACE * remaining races) is less than the leader's current total. Yet Kalshi markets often still price eliminated drivers above 0% -- this is free money.

Key advantages:

• Mathematical certainty -- elimination is a provable fact, not a prediction
• Low entry edge -- even 3% market price on an eliminated driver is pure edge
• Markets lag reality -- retail traders forget to update stale positions
• Zero-risk thesis -- the only risk is execution/timing, not model error

Signal Logic#

Elimination Detection#

1. Track championship standings (points per driver)
2. Calculate remaining races in the season
3. For each driver: max_possible = current_points + 26 * remaining_races
4. Driver is eliminated if max_possible < leader_points
5. If eliminated AND market price > entry_edge -> BUY NO

Points per Race#

ComponentPointsWin25Fastest lap1Max per race****26

Conviction-Based Sizing#

• conviction = min(market_price / entry_edge, 2.0) / 2.0
• size = max($1.00, conviction * MAX_POSITION_USD)
• Higher market price on eliminated driver = more conviction = larger position

Risk Parameters#

ParameterDefaultNotesEntry edge3%Min market price on eliminated driver to tradeExit threshold45%Sell when position price reaches thisMax position size$5.00 USDCPer marketMax trades per run5Rate limitingMax slippage15%Skip if slippage exceedsMin liquidity$0Disabled by default

Installation & Setup#

bash

clawhub install kalshi-f1-elimination-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule#

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode#

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

ScenarioModeFinancial riskpython trader.pyDry runNoneCron / automatonDry runNonepython trader.py --liveLive (Kalshi via DFlow)Real USDC

Required Credentials#

VariableRequiredNotesSIMMER_API_KEYYesTrading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEYYesBase58-encoded Solana private key for live trading.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)#

VariableDefaultPurposeSIMMER_F1_ELIM_ENTRY_EDGE``0.03Min market price on eliminated driver to tradeSIMMER_F1_ELIM_EXIT_THRESHOLD``0.45Sell position when price reaches this levelSIMMER_F1_ELIM_MAX_POSITION_USD``5.00Max USDC per tradeSIMMER_F1_ELIM_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN``5Max trades per execution cycleSIMMER_F1_ELIM_SLIPPAGE_MAX``0.15Max slippage before skipping tradeSIMMER_F1_ELIM_MIN_LIQUIDITY``0Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled)

Dependency#

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: hello@simmer.markets