Kalshi F1 Teammate Anti-Correlation Trader#

This is a template. The default signal uses static dominance ratios -- remix it with live head-to-head qualifying/race data for dynamic dominance estimation. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview#

F1 teammates share the same car, meaning their championship probabilities are structurally anti-correlated. If Verstappen's probability rises, Lawson's should fall (they share Red Bull's probability budget). Markets are slow to adjust both sides of teammate pairs simultaneously, creating exploitable relative mispricings.

Key advantages:

• Structural constraint -- teammate probabilities must sum to roughly the team's total share
• Dominance ratios are stable -- intra-team hierarchy rarely changes mid-season
• Markets adjust asymmetrically -- one driver's price moves but teammate's lags
• Pairs trading -- natural hedge structure reduces directional risk

Signal Logic#

Teammate Anti-Correlation Model#

1. Define teammate pairs (same constructor)
2. Set dominance ratios (who captures what % of team total)
3. For each pair, sum their market prices = team_total
4. Compute fair split: fair_A = team_total * dominance, fair_B = team_total * (1-dominance)
5. Trade when |fair - market| >= entry_edge for either driver

Teammate Pairs (2025)#

PairConstructorDominanceTeam TotalVerstappen / LawsonRed Bull85%/15%~36%Leclerc / HamiltonFerrari50%/50%~20%Russell / AntonelliMercedes70%/30%~8%Piastri / NorrisMcLaren40%/60%~36%

Conviction-Based Sizing#

• conviction = min(|edge| / entry_edge, 2.0) / 2.0
• size = max($1.00, conviction * MAX_POSITION_USD)
• Larger edge = larger position, capped at MAX_POSITION_USD

Risk Parameters#

ParameterDefaultNotesEntry edge8%Min fair-vs-market divergence to tradeExit threshold45%Sell when position price reaches thisMax position size$5.00 USDCPer marketMax trades per run4Rate limitingMax slippage15%Skip if slippage exceedsMin liquidity$0Disabled by default

Installation & Setup#

bash

clawhub install kalshi-f1-teammate-anti-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule#

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode#

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

ScenarioModeFinancial riskpython trader.pyDry runNoneCron / automatonDry runNonepython trader.py --liveLive (Kalshi via DFlow)Real USDC

Required Credentials#

VariableRequiredNotesSIMMER_API_KEYYesTrading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEYYesBase58-encoded Solana private key for live trading.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)#

VariableDefaultPurposeSIMMER_F1_TEAM_ENTRY_EDGE``0.08Min divergence to trigger tradeSIMMER_F1_TEAM_EXIT_THRESHOLD``0.45Sell position when price reaches this levelSIMMER_F1_TEAM_MAX_POSITION_USD``5.00Max USDC per tradeSIMMER_F1_TEAM_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN``4Max trades per execution cycleSIMMER_F1_TEAM_SLIPPAGE_MAX``0.15Max slippage before skipping tradeSIMMER_F1_TEAM_MIN_LIQUIDITY``0Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled)

Dependency#

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: hello@simmer.markets