Kalshi Fed Data Reaction Trader#

This is a template. The default signal uses static data sensitivity coefficients -- remix it with live BLS data feeds, real-time CPI nowcasts, or Fed funds futures reactions. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview#

After CPI/jobs data releases, Fed rate probabilities adjust predictably. This skill scans Kalshi CPI bin markets to compute the market-implied CPI, classifies the data regime (high CPI, low CPI, neutral), and adjusts the fair probability of a rate cut accordingly. When the adjustment creates a gap vs. rate cut market prices, it trades.

Key advantages:

• Data-driven -- uses market-implied CPI from Kalshi's own CPI bin markets
• Predictable reaction function -- high CPI is hawkish, low CPI is dovish
• Cross-market information -- extracts signal from CPI markets to trade rate markets

Signal Logic#

Data Sensitivity Model#

1. Scan CPI bin markets to compute probability-weighted implied CPI
2. Classify regime: high_cpi (>3.5%), low_cpi (<2.5%), or neutral
3. Apply sensitivity shift to baseline cut probability (50%)
4. Compare adjusted fair probability to rate cut market prices
5. Trade when |fair - market| >= entry_edge

Sensitivity Coefficients#

RegimeCut Probability ShiftHigh CPI-15% (hawkish)Low CPI+10% (dovish)Strong jobs-10% (hawkish)Weak jobs+15% (dovish)

Conviction-Based Sizing#

• conviction = min(|edge| / entry_edge, 2.0) / 2.0
• size = max($1.00, conviction * MAX_POSITION_USD)
• Larger edge = larger position, capped at MAX_POSITION_USD

Risk Parameters#

ParameterDefaultNotesEntry edge10%Min fair-vs-market divergence to tradeExit threshold45%Sell when position price reaches thisMax position size$5.00 USDCPer marketMax trades per run3Rate limitingMax slippage15%Skip if slippage exceedsMin liquidity$0Disabled by default

Installation & Setup#

bash

clawhub install kalshi-fed-data-reaction-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule#

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode#

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

ScenarioModeFinancial riskpython trader.pyDry runNoneCron / automatonDry runNonepython trader.py --liveLive (Kalshi via DFlow)Real USDC

Required Credentials#

VariableRequiredNotesSIMMER_API_KEYYesTrading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEYYesBase58-encoded Solana private key for live trading.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)#

VariableDefaultPurposeSIMMER_FED_DATA_ENTRY_EDGE``0.10Min divergence to trigger tradeSIMMER_FED_DATA_EXIT_THRESHOLD``0.45Sell position when price reaches this levelSIMMER_FED_DATA_MAX_POSITION_USD``5.00Max USDC per tradeSIMMER_FED_DATA_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN``3Max trades per execution cycleSIMMER_FED_DATA_SLIPPAGE_MAX``0.15Max slippage before skipping tradeSIMMER_FED_DATA_MIN_LIQUIDITY``0Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled)

Dependency#

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: hello@simmer.markets

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.