Kalshi Fed Dot Plot Trader#

This is a template. The default signal uses a static dot plot to compute fair probabilities -- remix it with live SEP data, Fed funds futures, or OIS-implied rates. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview#

The FOMC dot plot median implies a rate path for 2026. This skill computes fair probability of at least one rate cut (or hike) by each meeting date from the implied path, then trades when Kalshi market prices diverge from these fair values.

Key advantages:

• Dot plot is the Fed's own forecast -- strongest available signal for rate expectations
• Updated quarterly -- each SEP release provides fresh data
• Mean-reverting -- market prices tend to converge to dot-plot-implied probabilities between meetings

Signal Logic#

Dot Plot to Fair Probability#

1. Load FOMC dot plot median rate path (updated after each SEP)
2. Compute implied cuts from current rate to each quarterly endpoint
3. Map cut count to probability of "at least one cut" by each meeting
4. Compare fair probability to Kalshi market price
5. Trade when |fair - market| >= entry_edge

Conviction-Based Sizing#

• conviction = min(|edge| / entry_edge, 2.0) / 2.0
• size = max($1.00, conviction * MAX_POSITION_USD)
• Larger edge = larger position, capped at MAX_POSITION_USD

Risk Parameters#

ParameterDefaultNotesEntry edge10%Min fair-vs-market divergence to tradeExit threshold45%Sell when position price reaches thisMax position size$5.00 USDCPer marketMax trades per run3Rate limitingMax slippage15%Skip if slippage exceedsMin liquidity$0Disabled by default

Installation & Setup#

bash

clawhub install kalshi-fed-dot-plot-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule#

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode#

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

ScenarioModeFinancial riskpython trader.pyDry runNoneCron / automatonDry runNonepython trader.py --liveLive (Kalshi via DFlow)Real USDC

Required Credentials#

VariableRequiredNotesSIMMER_API_KEYYesTrading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEYYesBase58-encoded Solana private key for live trading.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)#

VariableDefaultPurposeSIMMER_FED_DOT_ENTRY_EDGE``0.10Min divergence to trigger tradeSIMMER_FED_DOT_EXIT_THRESHOLD``0.45Sell position when price reaches this levelSIMMER_FED_DOT_MAX_POSITION_USD``5.00Max USDC per tradeSIMMER_FED_DOT_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN``3Max trades per execution cycleSIMMER_FED_DOT_SLIPPAGE_MAX``0.15Max slippage before skipping tradeSIMMER_FED_DOT_MIN_LIQUIDITY``0Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled)

Dependency#

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: hello@simmer.markets

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.