Kalshi Fed Temporal Monotonicity Trader#

This is a template. The default signal detects temporal monotonicity violations in Fed rate markets -- remix it with live yield curve data, Fed funds futures, or options-implied probabilities. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview#

Fed rate cut/hike markets across different meeting dates must satisfy temporal monotonicity: the probability of a cut "by June" must be >= the probability of a cut "by April", since June includes April. When this invariant is violated, we have a pure structural arbitrage.

Key advantages:

• Mathematical certainty -- this is a logical invariant, not a statistical edge
• No model risk -- the relationship P(by later) >= P(by earlier) is always true
• Self-correcting -- violations are temporary mispricings that must converge

Signal Logic#

Temporal Monotonicity#

1. Scan all Fed rate cut/hike markets on Kalshi
2. Group by year and type (cut vs hike)
3. Sort chronologically by FOMC meeting date
4. Compare: if P(cut by April) > P(cut by June) + threshold, violation detected
5. Buy YES on the later (underpriced) date market

Conviction-Based Sizing#

• conviction = min(violation_size / violation_threshold, 2.0) / 2.0
• size = max($1.00, conviction * MAX_POSITION_USD)
• Larger violations = larger positions, capped at MAX_POSITION_USD

Risk Parameters#

ParameterDefaultNotesViolation threshold3%Min difference to trigger tradeExit threshold45%Sell when position price reaches thisMax position size$5.00 USDCPer marketMax trades per run3Rate limitingMax slippage15%Skip if slippage exceedsMin liquidity$0Disabled by default

Installation & Setup#

bash

clawhub install kalshi-fed-temporal-mono-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule#

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode#

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

ScenarioModeFinancial riskpython trader.pyDry runNoneCron / automatonDry runNonepython trader.py --liveLive (Kalshi via DFlow)Real USDC

Required Credentials#

VariableRequiredNotesSIMMER_API_KEYYesTrading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEYYesBase58-encoded Solana private key for live trading.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)#

VariableDefaultPurposeSIMMER_FED_TEMP_VIOLATION_THRESHOLD``0.03Min violation size to trigger tradeSIMMER_FED_TEMP_EXIT_THRESHOLD``0.45Sell position when price reaches this levelSIMMER_FED_TEMP_MAX_POSITION_USD``5.00Max USDC per tradeSIMMER_FED_TEMP_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN``3Max trades per execution cycleSIMMER_FED_TEMP_SLIPPAGE_MAX``0.15Max slippage before skipping tradeSIMMER_FED_TEMP_MIN_LIQUIDITY``0Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled)

Dependency#

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: hello@simmer.markets

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.