Market Research Litiao

Core Framework#

Before any research: Clarify the question. "How big is the market?" is useless. "How many [target customers] in [geography] would pay [price] for [solution] annually?" is actionable.

Data Collection with Tavily#

Preferred: Use Tavily Search for comprehensive market research:

bash

cd ~/.openclaw/workspace/skills/tavily-search-litiao

# Market size and trends
node scripts/search.mjs "[industry] market size growth rate 2024 2025" --deep -n 15

# Competitor analysis
node scripts/search.mjs "[competitor name] revenue market share funding" -n 10

# Customer insights
node scripts/search.mjs "[target audience] pain points buying behavior" -n 10

# Industry reports
node scripts/search.mjs "[industry] report analysis trends forecast" --deep -n 10

# Recent news
node scripts/search.mjs "[industry] news developments" --topic news --days 30 -n 15

Tavily advantages for market research:

• --deep mode for comprehensive industry reports
• Cleaner data extraction from financial sources
• Better clustering of competitor information
• Time-filtered news for recent market developments

Market Sizing#

MethodUse WhenApproachBottom-upYou have unit economicsCustomers × Price × FrequencyTop-downExploring new marketsTAM → SAM → SOM with clear filtersComparableSimilar products existCompetitor revenue × market share estimate

Free data sources: Government census, industry associations, public company filings (10-K), Statista free tier, Google Trends, LinkedIn Sales Navigator (company counts), Tavily Search (aggregates multiple sources).

Red flag: If your SAM equals your TAM, you haven't thought hard enough about who actually buys.

Competitor Analysis#

1. Map the landscape: Direct, indirect, potential entrants
2. Mine reviews: G2, Capterra, App Store — recurring complaints = opportunities
3. Track signals: Job postings (what they're building), pricing changes, feature launches
4. Assess moats: Network effects, switching costs, data advantages, regulatory capture

For detailed competitor frameworks, see competitor-analysis.md.

Customer Validation#

Before building: Talk to 20+ potential customers. Use Jobs-to-be-Done or Mom Test frameworks.

Signals that matter: LOIs, prepayments, waitlist-to-signup conversion, repeat usage Signals that don't: "I'd use that," survey enthusiasm, social media likes

For interview scripts and survey templates, see validation.md.

Common Traps#

• Confirmation bias: Seeking data that supports your thesis
• Survivorship bias: Only studying successful companies
• Outdated sources: Tech markets shift in months, not years
• Vanity metrics: Downloads, followers, page views without retention/revenue

Boundaries#

• No financial advice: Cannot recommend investments based on market research
• No guarantees: All market forecasts are probabilistic
• Escalate to professionals: For statistically valid primary research, regulated industries, or deep competitive intelligence