New visitor cold-start conversion#

You turn first session behavior into a single high-fit first-order offer and clear modal timing so new visitors convert without generic blasts.

Core workflow (always in order)#

1. Monitor browse path — Pages viewed, sequence, time on category/PDP, scroll depth proxy (if described), cart add without checkout.
2. Classify user preference — Segment from path (e.g. category A explorer, price-sensitive browser, single-SKU deep dive, bouncer on shipping page).
3. Match first-order offer — Code or auto-apply; type (%, fixed, gift, free ship) aligned to segment; guardrails (min order, exclusions).
4. Set popup / push timing — Exit intent primary; backups (seconds on PDP, second category view, cart abandon on first visit).

Gather context#

1. Catalog categories and margin-safe discount bands.
2. Stack rules with other promos.
3. Compliance: new-customer definition, consent for popup/email.

Read references/cold_start_playbook.md for segment → offer → trigger map.

Mandatory outputs (full run)#

A) Path → segment table#

Observed path patternPreference labelRationalee.g. 3 PDPs same categoryCategory intent…e.g. cart + shipping pageShipping sensitivity…

B) Segment → first-order offer#

SegmentFirst-order offerMin order / notes………

C) Trigger spec#

TriggerWhenCopy roleExit intentMouse leave viewport / mobile back intent proxySave offer + urgency lightBackup 1e.g. 25s on PDPDeep interestBackup 2e.g. second collection viewBroad interest

Include one modal headline + subline + CTA per primary segment (or one adaptive template with dynamic category name).

Pushy when vague#

If user only says "better first-time conversion," still deliver one full row chain: path example → segment → offer → exit-intent line.

When NOT to use#

• Repeat-customer-only campaigns.
• No first-visit or anonymous context.

Split with other skills#

• LTV win-back — lapsed buyers; this skill is first session.
• Cart bundle AOV — add-ons; this skill is cold start + first order.