Prediction Market Smoke Test#

This is a minimal publish-and-install test skill.

Use this skill when the user wants to:

• sanity-check whether a prediction market question is well-formed
• draft a quick trading thesis before opening a position
• verify that this skill can be installed from ClawHub

Quick Workflow#

When this skill is used, follow this short workflow:

1. Restate the market question in one sentence.
2. Identify the resolution source and what event would count as a YES result.
3. List the top 3 reasons the market may be mispriced.
4. Give a one-paragraph bullish case and one-paragraph bearish case.
5. End with a concise checklist:
   • resolution source confirmed
   • time to resolution understood
   • major ambiguity checked
   • current thesis stated clearly

Output Template#

Use this structure when helpful:

Market Summary#

• Question:
• YES means:
• Resolution source:
• Deadline:

Possible Edge#

• Reason 1:
• Reason 2:
• Reason 3:

Bull Case#

Bear Case#

Final Checklist#

• Resolution source confirmed
• Ambiguity reviewed
• Thesis written

Notes#

• This skill is intentionally simple so it is easy to publish, install, and validate.
• After confirming this works through ClawHub, you can replace it with your real prediction-market skill.