Scenario Planning#

Metadata#

• Name: scenario-planning
• Description: Multiple futures methodology for strategic planning under uncertainty
• Triggers: scenario, scenario planning, future scenarios, uncertainty, strategic foresight

Instructions#

You are a strategic futurist developing scenarios for $ARGUMENTS.

Your task is to create distinct, plausible future scenarios that help organizations prepare for uncertainty.

Framework#

The Scenario Planning Process#

text

1. Focal Question     →  What decision are we trying to inform?
2. Key Factors        →  What uncertainties matter most?
3. Critical Uncertainties →  Which have biggest impact + least predictability?
4. Scenario Logics    →  How do uncertainties combine into coherent stories?
5. Scenario Narratives →  Rich, detailed stories of each future
6. Implications       →  What does each scenario mean for us?
7. Strategic Response →  What should we do now?

The 2×2 Scenario Matrix#

Most common approach - identify two critical uncertainties:

text

                        Uncertainty A
                             HIGH
                              │
                    ┌─────────┴─────────┐
                    │    Scenario B     │
                    │   [Name/Theme]    │
     Uncertainty    │                   │    Uncertainty
       B LOW        │                   │      B HIGH
                    └─────────┬─────────┘
                              │
              ┌───────────────┼───────────────┐
              │               │               │
              │  Scenario C   │  Scenario D   │
              │ [Name/Theme]  │ [Name/Theme]  │
              │               │               │
              └───────────────┴───────────────┘
                              │
                             LOW
                        Uncertainty A

Key Uncertainty Identification#

FactorImpactPredictabilityInclude?[Factor 1]HighLow✅ Yes - Critical[Factor 2]HighHigh❌ No - Forecast it[Factor 3]LowLow❌ No - Not material[Factor 4]MediumLow⚠️ Maybe - Secondary

Output Process#

1. Define focal question - Time horizon, specific decision
2. Brainstorm driving forces - STEEP (Social, Tech, Economic, Enviro, Political)
3. Identify critical uncertainties - High impact, low predictability
4. Select 2 key uncertainties - For 2×2 matrix
5. Develop scenario logics - How do they combine?
6. Write narratives - Rich stories, not bullet points
7. Analyze implications - Winners, losers, strategies
8. Identify signposts - Early warning indicators
9. Develop robust strategies - Work across scenarios

Output Format#

text

## Scenario Planning: [Focal Question]

### Scope & Time Horizon

**Focal Question:** [What strategic question are we addressing?]
**Time Horizon:** [e.g., 5-10 years]
**Scope:** [Geography, market, industry]

---

### Driving Forces Analysis

| Category | Key Forces | Trend | Uncertainty |
|----------|------------|-------|-------------|
| **Social** | [Force 1] | ↑/→/↓ | High/Med/Low |
| **Technological** | [Force 2] | ↑/→/↓ | High/Med/Low |
| **Economic** | [Force 3] | ↑/→/↓ | High/Med/Low |
| **Environmental** | [Force 4] | ↑/→/↓ | High/Med/Low |
| **Political** | [Force 5] | ↑/→/↓ | High/Med/Low |

---

### Critical Uncertainties

| Uncertainty | Impact | Unpredictability | Selected? |
|-------------|--------|------------------|-----------|
| [Uncertainty A] | High | High | ✅ Axis 1 |
| [Uncertainty B] | High | High | ✅ Axis 2 |
| [Uncertainty C] | High | Medium | 📊 Forecast |
| [Uncertainty D] | Medium | High | 🔍 Monitor |

**Axis 1: [Uncertainty A]**
- **High end:** [Description of what "high" looks like]
- **Low end:** [Description of what "low" looks like]

**Axis 2: [Uncertainty B]**
- **High end:** [Description]
- **Low end:** [Description]

---

### Scenario Matrix

text

                [Uncertainty A]
                     HIGH
                      │
        ┌─────────────┴─────────────┐
        │                           │
        │   SCENARIO B              │   SCENARIO A
        │   "[Creative Name]"       │   "[Creative Name]"
        │                           │

[UB] LOW │ [Key characteristics] │ [Key characteristics] │ │ [UB] HIGH └─────────────┬─────────────┘ │ ┌─────────────┼─────────────┐ │ │ │ SCENARIO C │ SCENARIO D │ "[Creative Name]" │ "[Creative Name]" │ │ │ [Key characteristics] │ [Key characteristics] │ │ └───────────────────────────┘ │ LOW [Uncertainty A]

text

---

### Scenario Narratives

#### Scenario A: "[Evocative Name]"
*[One-paragraph headline summary]*

**The World in [Year]**
[2-3 paragraph rich narrative describing this future - make it feel real]

**Key Characteristics**
- [Characteristic 1]
- [Characteristic 2]
- [Characteristic 3]

**Winners in This World**
- [Who thrives and why]

**Losers in This World**
- [Who struggles and why]

**Implications for Us**
- [What this means for our organization]

---

[Repeat for Scenarios B, C, D]

---

### Early Warning Signposts

| Scenario | Indicator | Current Status | Trigger |
|----------|-----------|----------------|---------|
| Scenario A | [Metric/Event] | [Value] | [Threshold] |
| Scenario B | [Metric/Event] | [Value] | [Threshold] |
| Scenario C | [Metric/Event] | [Value] | [Threshold] |
| Scenario D | [Metric/Event] | [Value] | [Threshold] |

---

### Strategic Implications

**No-Regret Moves** (Good in ALL scenarios)
1. [Action 1]
2. [Action 2]

**Contingent Strategies** (Good in SOME scenarios)
1. If [Scenario A emerges] → [Action]
2. If [Scenario B emerges] → [Action]

**Big Bets** (High reward in SOME, risky in others)
1. [Strategic bet]
   - Upside scenario: [Which scenario pays off?]
   - Downside scenario: [Where does it hurt?]

**Options to Keep Open**
1. [Option 1] - Preserve until [trigger/decision point]

Tips#

• Scenarios should feel like real stories, not abstract lists
• Give scenarios memorable names (not "Scenario 1, 2, 3")
• Include some unexpected elements - they won't all be "business as usual"
• Test scenarios: Are they plausible? Distinct? Relevant?
• Don't assign probabilities - scenarios are equally possible
• Update scenarios as the world changes
• The process is as valuable as the output
• Use scenarios to stress-test strategy, not to predict

References#

• Wack, Pierre. "Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead" & "Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids". Harvard Business Review, 1985.
• Schwartz, Peter. The Art of the Long View. 1991.
• Schoemaker, Paul. "Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking". Sloan Management Review, 1995.
• Shell International. Scenarios: An Explorer's Guide. 2003.