Stablecoin Depeg Scanner 🔍#

3-minute crisis arbitrage evaluator. When a stablecoin loses its peg, run the assessment to decide: buy, watch, or avoid.

Philosophy#

Depeg = panic pricing. The question is NOT "is it safe" but "is the discount bigger than the real damage?" Small position, high odds, asymmetric payoff.

Quick Start#

When user mentions a stablecoin depeg event:

Step 1: Run the automated evaluator (60 seconds)#

bash

cd SKILL_DIR && python scripts/depeg_eval.py <COIN> --capital <USER_CAPITAL>

• <COIN>: CoinGecko ID or symbol (e.g., resolv-usr, USR, DAI)
• --capital: User's total available capital in USD (default: 5000)
• --peg: Target peg price if not $1.00 (default: 1.0)

The script auto-fetches: current price, market cap, TVL from DefiLlama, and calculates odds + position size.

Replace SKILL_DIR with the resolved absolute path of this SKILL.md's parent directory.

Step 2: Complete exploit analysis (60 seconds)#

The script outputs a checklist. Use web_search to answer these questions:

1. Was collateral stolen or was it a mint/logic exploit?
   • Search: "<coin_name> exploit PeckShield" or "<coin_name> hack SlowMist"
   • Mint/logic exploit (collateral intact) → bullish
   • Collateral drained → bearish
2. Has the team responded?
   • Check their Twitter for pause announcement
   • Response within 1h → good sign
   • Silent >6h → red flag
3. Is the bug fixable?
   • Smart contract bug with clear fix → recovery likely
   • Fundamental design flaw → avoid

Step 3: Adjust and deliver recommendation (60 seconds)#

Based on exploit analysis, adjust the script's score:

• Collateral confirmed intact → score +10
• Team responded fast with plan → score +10
• Collateral partially stolen → score -10
• No team response → score -20
• Algorithmic stablecoin / no real backing → score -50 (AVOID regardless)

Deliver final recommendation with:

• Action: BUY / WATCH / AVOID
• Position size in USD
• Entry price range
• Exit target
• Stop condition

Decision Framework#

For detailed scoring logic, exploit type analysis, historical benchmarks, and red/green flags, read references/decision-framework.md.

Output Format (to user)#

text

🔍 稳定币脱锚评估: <SYMBOL>

📊 价格:
• 当前: $X.XX | 锚定: $1.00 | 偏离: XX%
• 赔率: X.Xx

🏦 抵押物:
• TVL: $XXM (较昨日 -X%)
• 状态: 完整/部分损失/已掏空

🔐 攻击分析:
• 类型: 铸造漏洞/预言机/抵押物被盗
• 团队响应: 已暂停/未回应
• 可修复性: 高/中/低

📋 结论:
• 操作: 🟢买入 / 🟡观望 / 🔴回避
• 仓位: $XXX (总资金X%)
• 目标: $X.XX
• 止损条件: XXX

Key Rules#

1. Speed over perfection — 3 minutes, not 30 minutes. First-mover advantage is everything.
2. TVL is truth — DefiLlama TVL > official statements. Contracts don't lie.
3. Small positions only — Never >6% of capital on a single depeg bet.
4. Algorithmic = death — No real collateral = no recovery. Luna/UST is the permanent lesson.
5. Exit plan before entry — Know your sell condition before buying.