Systems Thinking#

See the whole before optimizing a part. End with recommendations that account for loops and delays.

When to use#

• A problem keeps returning after "fixes".
• A change in one team, service or policy may hit others (unintended consequences, incentives, queues, backlogs).
• The user asks for root causes beyond a single person or component, or for a holistic view.

Skip: single-step linear tasks, one-variable calculations, fixes that need no map of interactions.

Before you start#

1. State in one block: System in focus (what is inside the boundary) and Pass (Boundary, Structure, Dynamics, Delays, Leverage, Synthesis).
2. Gather first. Read the code, docs, tickets or metrics that describe how the parts connect before drawing the map. Ask up to 3 scoping questions only for what tools cannot answer.
3. Light path. Small ask: 2-3 bullets per phase. Never skip Structure before Leverage, even on the light path.
4. If the user already proposed an intervention, shorten Boundary but keep Structure and Dynamics.

Phases#

1. Boundary#

What is in and out for this analysis. One sentence on the system's purpose from a stakeholder's view.

2. Structure#

Elements (stocks that accumulate, actors, resources) and flows (rates in and out). Short pairs: From -> To: what moves.

3. Dynamics#

At least one reinforcing (R) and one balancing (B) loop where plausible:

Loop [R|B]: ... - Mechanism: ...

If no loop applies, say so in one line and why.

4. Delays#

Where is the lag between action and effect? How does it change behavior (overshoot, oscillation, giving up too early)?

5. Leverage#

Leverage point: ... - Why it matters: ... - Risk of backfire: ...

Prefer changes to rules, information flows, incentives or goals over exhorting people to behave differently. Donella Meadows ranks these as stronger levers than adjusting parameters such as limits and budgets.

6. Synthesis#

1. System story: one plain-language paragraph.
2. Non-obvious consequence: at least one.
3. Recommended moves: 2-3 actions consistent with the loops and delays above.

Pitfalls#

• Jumping to solutions before Structure and a light Dynamics pass.
• Stopping at "X is careless". Translate to the incentive or information gap behind the behavior.
• Drawing every box you can think of. Include only elements that change the answer.
• A fix that works now but triggers a balancing loop later. Check Delays against each recommendation.

Diagrams are optional; the bullets must stand alone. Worked example: references/example.md.

Checklist#

• System in focus and Pass stated
• Boundary and purpose explicit
• Structure uses elements and From -> To flows
• Dynamics: R and B loops, or N/A justified
• Delays considered where time matters
• Leverage tied to the map, with backfire risk
• Synthesis tells one coherent story