AION Market Divergence Trader#

This skill is a publishable trading template for AION Market. It compares your probability estimate with the live market price, checks market context, and only places a trade when the edge clears a configurable threshold.

This is a template. The default signal is probability divergence: if your model thinks the event is more likely than the market implies, the skill buys YES; if less likely, it buys NO. Remix the signal source with your own model, API, or research process. The skill handles trade discipline, operator output, and AION trade tagging.

When To Use#

Use this skill when an agent already has a probability estimate for a specific market and needs a safe execution wrapper around that signal.

Skill Folder#

This skill ships with three files:

• SKILL.md
• clawhub.json
• divergence_trader.py

Defaults#

• Venue: polymarket
• Trade size: 5.0
• Minimum edge: 0.05
• Execution mode: dry-run unless --live is passed
• Trade source: sdk:aionmarket-trading
• Skill slug: aionmarket-trading

Required Inputs#

The skill expects:

• AION_API_KEY or AIONMARKET_API_KEY
• MARKET_ID for the target market
• MY_PROBABILITY as a decimal between 0 and 1

Optional inputs:

• VENUE such as polymarket or kalshi
• TRADE_SIZE
• MIN_EDGE
• REASONING_PREFIX

Safety Rules#

1. Always fetch market context before deciding.
2. Always default to dry-run. Live trading requires explicit --live.
3. Always attach source, skill_slug, and human-readable reasoning.
4. Skip trading when context reports warnings or flip-flop risk.
5. Return HOLD when the edge is smaller than the configured threshold.

Decision Logic#

1. Read the live market probability from market context.
2. Compute edge = my_probability - market_probability.
3. If edge >= min_edge, buy YES.
4. If edge <= -min_edge, buy NO.
5. Otherwise hold.

Example Commands#

Dry-run:

bash

python divergence_trader.py --market-id 12345 --my-probability 0.62

Live trade:

bash

python divergence_trader.py --market-id 12345 --my-probability 0.62 --amount 5 --live

Expected Operator Output#

The script prints an operator-style summary:

text

Skill: aionmarket-trading
Venue: polymarket
Risk alerts:
- none

Decision:
- MARKET_ID: TRADE YES size=5.0 reason=edge +7.0%

Remix Ideas#

• Replace MY_PROBABILITY with a forecast model output.
• Drive MARKET_ID from a market scanner.
• Add portfolio-aware sizing before the trade call.
• Extend the loop to poll with jitter and auto-redeem resolved positions. key=private_key, chain_id=137, ) creds = polymarket.create_or_derive_api_creds() wallet = polymarket.get_address()

print(f"Wallet: {wallet}") print(f"CLOB API Key: {creds.api_key}")

2. Register with AION Market#

check = client.check_wallet_credentials(wallet) if not check["hasCredentials"]: client.register_wallet_credentials( wallet_address=wallet, api_key=creds.api_key, api_secret=creds.api_secret, api_passphrase=creds.api_passphrase, ) print(f"Wallet credentials registered for {wallet}") else: print(f"Wallet {wallet} already configured.")

text

### Step 4 — Configure Risk Limits

```python
client.update_settings(
    max_trades_per_day=50,
    max_trade_amount=100.0,
    trading_paused=False,
    auto_redeem_enabled=True,
)
settings = client.get_settings()
print(settings)

Step 5 — Kalshi Prerequisites (Optional, for Kalshi venue)#

• Ensure Solana wallet is available ( SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY / userPublicKey)
• Use kalshi_quote() to request unsigned tx, locally sign, then call kalshi_submit()
• For BUY flows, provide userPublicKey so KYC/geo checks can be evaluated upstream

---

Workflow: Market Search & Context#

Understanding Market Data Structure#

Critical: get_markets() returns events, each containing a nested markets[] array of sub-markets. Trading fields like conditionId, clobTokenIds, outcomePrices, negRisk, and orderPriceMinTickSize live on the sub-market, NOT the event.

python

import ast

# Search returns events
events = client.get_markets(q="bitcoin", limit=10)

for event in events:
    print(f"Event: {event['title']}")
    for sub in event.get("markets", []):
        # Parse JSON strings
        prices = ast.literal_eval(sub.get("outcomePrices", '["0.5","0.5"]'))
        token_ids = ast.literal_eval(sub.get("clobTokenIds", '[]'))
        print(f"  Sub-market: {sub['question']}")
        print(f"    conditionId: {sub['conditionId']}")
        print(f"    YES price: {prices[0]}, NO price: {prices[1]}")
        print(f"    YES token: {token_ids[0] if token_ids else 'N/A'}")
        print(f"    negRisk: {sub.get('negRisk', False)}")
        print(f"    tickSize: {sub.get('orderPriceMinTickSize', 0.01)}")
        print(f"    minSize: {sub.get('orderMinSize', 5)}")

Get Market Context (REQUIRED before trading)#

python

context = client.get_market_context("CONDITION_ID", user=wallet)

print(f"Name:       {context.get('name')}")
print(f"Position:   {context.get('myPosition')}")
print(f"Risk limit: {context.get('riskLimit')}")
print(f"Warnings:   {context.get('warnings')}")

if context.get("warnings"):
    print("⚠️  Review warnings before proceeding!")

Automatic Pre-Trade Readiness Checks#

Before signing or submitting any order, the agent should automatically verify:

• wallet credentials are already registered, otherwise register them
• collateral balance is sufficient for the intended spend
• Polygon gas balance is sufficient if an onchain approval may be needed
• the required spender allowance already exists for the intended order

If allowance is insufficient and gas is available, the agent should send the approval transaction automatically instead of asking the user to do it manually.

---

Workflow: Trade Execution#

Building a Signed Order (REQUIRED)#

The trade() endpoint requires a complete EIP712-signed order from py-clob-client. Passing "order": {} will cause a credential lookup failure — the server reads order.signatureType to find your wallet credentials.

python

import ast
from py_clob_client.client import ClobClient
from py_clob_client.clob_types import ApiCreds, CreateOrderOptions, OrderArgs

# 1. Initialize CLOB client with creds (derived earlier in bootstrap)
clob = ClobClient(
    "https://clob.polymarket.com",
    key=private_key,     # WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY
    chain_id=137,
    creds=ApiCreds(
        api_key=creds.api_key,
        api_secret=creds.api_secret,
        api_passphrase=creds.api_passphrase,
    ),
)

# 2. Extract trading params from sub-market (NOT event)
sub_market = event["markets"][0]  # pick the sub-market you want to trade
condition_id = sub_market["conditionId"]
token_ids = ast.literal_eval(sub_market["clobTokenIds"])
yes_token_id = token_ids[0]   # index 0 = YES, index 1 = NO
no_token_id = token_ids[1]
neg_risk = sub_market.get("negRisk", False)
tick_size = str(sub_market.get("orderPriceMinTickSize", "0.01"))
min_size = sub_market.get("orderMinSize", 5)

# 3. Build signed order — MUST use CreateOrderOptions for proper signing
signed_order = clob.create_order(
    OrderArgs(
        token_id=yes_token_id,   # or no_token_id for NO side
        price=0.55,
        size=min_size,           # must >= orderMinSize
        side="BUY",
    ),
    options=CreateOrderOptions(
        tick_size=tick_size,     # from sub-market.orderPriceMinTickSize
        neg_risk=neg_risk,       # CRITICAL for neg-risk markets!
    ),
)

# 4. Convert dataclass to dict for JSON serialization
order_dict = signed_order.dict()

Place a Trade#

python

result = client.trade({
    "marketConditionId": condition_id,          # hex conditionId from sub-market
    "marketQuestion": sub_market["question"],   # question text
    "outcome": "YES",                           # YES or NO
    "orderSize": min_size,                      # number of contracts
    "price": 0.55,                              # price per contract (0-1)
    "isLimitOrder": True,                       # True=limit, False=market
    "order": order_dict,                        # ← FULL signed order (never {})
    "walletAddress": wallet,                    # ← REQUIRED
    "reasoning": "Strategy edge explanation",
})
print(f"Order ID: {result.get('orderId')}")
print(f"Status:   {result.get('status')}")

Default Execution Policy#

For general-purpose execution, use this default policy unless the user overrides it:

1. prefer market mode
2. use 2 USDC as default buy size
3. derive a marketable cap from current prices or order book when using market-order helpers
4. ask for a price only when the user explicitly requested a limit order and did not provide one
5. report the market snapshot and final order parameters without blocking on extra confirmation

Common pitfalls:

• "order": {} → server cannot find signatureType, returns credential error
• Using event numeric ID as marketConditionId → use sub-market hex conditionId
• Missing walletAddress → "walletAddress 不能为空" error
• Not setting neg_risk=True for neg-risk markets → invalid signature, Polymarket rejects
• orderSize below orderMinSize → order rejected
• Insufficient USDC balance → server returns generic INTERNAL_ERROR
• Insufficient allowance → downstream exchange cannot spend collateral
• SDK result is empty or generic → verify recent trades and orders before reporting failure

Order types: GTC (default), FOK, GTD, FAK Sides: BUY, SELL Outcomes: YES, NO

---

Workflow: Kalshi Quote -> Sign -> Submit#

Use this flow for Kalshi venue execution.

python

quote = client.kalshi_quote(
    market_ticker="KX...",
    side="YES",
    action="BUY",
    amount=10,
    user_public_key="<solana-wallet>",
)

# Sign quote["unsignedTransaction"] locally (wallet implementation specific)
signed_tx = "<base64-signed-tx>"

submit = client.kalshi_submit(
    market_ticker="KX...",
    side="YES",
    action="BUY",
    amount=10,
    quote_id=quote["quoteId"],
    signed_transaction=signed_tx,
    user_public_key="<solana-wallet>",
    in_amount=quote.get("inAmount"),
    out_amount=quote.get("outAmount"),
    min_out_amount=quote.get("minOutAmount"),
)
print(submit)

# Unified positions endpoint for Kalshi (venue = kalshi)
kalshi_positions = client.get_current_positions(
    user="<solana-wallet>",
    venue="kalshi",
)
print(kalshi_positions)

Kalshi currently does not expose a dedicated cancel API in this SDK. Use a SELL flow ( kalshi_quote -> sign -> kalshi_submit) to reduce/exit exposure.

Workflow: Order Management#

python

# List open orders
open_orders = client.get_open_orders()

# Order history (with optional filters)
history = client.get_order_history(limit=20, order_status=2)

# Single order detail
detail = client.get_order_detail("ORDER_ID")

# Cancel one order
client.cancel_order("ORDER_ID")

# Cancel ALL orders (use with care)
client.cancel_all_orders()

---

Workflow: Heartbeat / Briefing#

Call periodically (every 30s–15min depending on strategy frequency).

python

# wallet can be Polygon or Solana based on venue flow
briefing = client.get_briefing(user=wallet)

# 1. Handle risk alerts first
for alert in briefing.get("riskAlerts", []):
    print(f"⚠️  {alert}")

# 2. Review open orders
open_orders = client.get_open_orders()
print(f"Open orders: {len(open_orders)}")

# 3. Scan opportunity markets
for opp in briefing.get("opportunityMarkets", [])[:5]:
    print(f"Opportunity: {opp.get('id')} — {opp.get('question')}")

---

Workflow: Redemption#

When a market settles, redeem winning positions:

python

client.redeem(market_id="MARKET_ID", side="YES")

---

Error Handling#

python

from aionmarket_sdk import AionMarketClient, ApiError

client = AionMarketClient()

try:
    result = client.get_me()
except ApiError as e:
    if e.status_code == 401:
        print("❌ Invalid or missing API key")
    elif e.status_code == 403:
        print("❌ Agent not authorized — check claim status or wallet credentials")
    elif e.status_code == 429:
        print("⏳ Rate limited — back off and retry")
    else:
        print(f"API Error {e.code}: {e.message}")

When trading, an ApiError from AION Market may still hide a successful downstream venue execution. If the response is ambiguous, query venue-specific follow-up endpoints before concluding failure (Polymarket orders/trades, or Kalshi submit/positions state).

---

SDK Method Reference#

Agent Management#

MethodDescriptionregister_agent(name)Create agent, returns API key + claim codeclaim_preview(claim_code)Preview agent info via claim codeget_me()Current agent profile and balancesget_settings()Read risk control settingsupdate_settings(...)Update max trades, max amount, pause, auto-redeemget_skills(category, limit, offset)List available strategy skills

Market Operations#

MethodDescriptionget_markets(q, limit, page, venue, events_status)Search markets by keywordget_market(market_id, venue)Single market detailscheck_market_exists(market_id, venue)Existence checkget_prices_history(token_id, ...)Historical prices for a tokenget_briefing(venue, since, user, include_markets)Heartbeat: alerts + opportunitiesget_market_context(market_id, venue, user, my_probability)Pre-trade context & riskget_current_positions(user, venue, ...)Unified current positions ( polymarket / kalshi)

Wallet Management#

MethodDescriptioncheck_wallet_credentials(wallet_address)Check if CLOB credentials existregister_wallet_credentials(wallet_address, api_key, api_secret, api_passphrase)Store encrypted CLOB credentials

Trading Operations#

MethodDescriptiontrade(payload)Place a Polymarket market/limit orderget_open_orders(venue, market_condition_id, limit)List unfilled ordersget_order_history(venue, ..., limit, offset)Historical orders with filtersget_order_detail(order_id, venue, wallet_address)Single order detailcancel_order(order_id, venue, wallet_address)Cancel one ordercancel_all_orders(venue, wallet_address)Cancel all open ordersredeem(market_id, side, venue, wallet_address)Redeem settled positionkalshi_quote(...)Build unsigned Kalshi quote txkalshi_submit(...)Submit locally signed Kalshi tx

---

Checklist: Ready to Trade#

• pip install aionmarket-sdk py-clob-client python-dotenv installed
• .env file created with AIONMARKET_API_KEY and WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY (plus SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY if using Kalshi)
• .env added to .gitignore
• get_me() returns valid agent info
• Polymarket CLOB credentials derived from private key and registered via register_wallet_credentials()
• automatic balance, gas/fees, and allowance checks are part of the trading flow
• missing allowance is auto-approved when technically possible
• Risk limits configured via update_settings()
• Heartbeat loop ( get_briefing()) running or planned
• Error handling wraps every SDK call with ApiError
• For Kalshi: quote -> sign -> submit flow validated with kalshi_quote() / kalshi_submit()
• ambiguous trade responses are verified against venue-specific state endpoints

Once all boxes are checked, the agent is ready for strategy skills to drive market discovery and automated trade execution.