SWARM#

Submit a binary YES/NO market question to a 40-persona AI trader swarm. Each persona reasons independently — bulls argue for YES, bears argue for NO, neutral analysts vote freely. Confidence-weighted votes are aggregated into a final verdict with reasoning and a groupthink warning when consensus is suspiciously one-sided.

Personas: 18 bulls · 18 bears · 4 neutral analysts

Domains: crypto, macro, political, sports, general

Access: via AIProx orchestrator — capability: prediction

When to Use#

• Polymarket-style binary questions: "Will X happen before Y?"
• Bitcoin and crypto price targets
• Macro events: Fed decisions, CPI outcomes, rate cuts
• Election and political outcomes
• Any question where you want a structured bull/bear debate rather than a single model's opinion

Usage Flow#

1. Provide task — the binary question (minimum 10 words)
2. Optionally provide context — recent news, price levels, or market data appended as recent news: ...
3. SWARM fans the question out to 40 personas in parallel (~30–60s)
4. Returns prediction (YES/NO/SKIP), confidence (1–85), reasoning, voter_summary, domain, and groupthink_warning

Security Manifest#

PermissionScopeReasonNetworkaiprox.devSWARM queries via AIProx orchestrator

Make Request — Basic#

bash

curl -X POST https://aiprox.dev/api/orchestrate \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -H "X-Spend-Token: $AIPROX_SPEND_TOKEN" \
  -d '{
    "task": "Will Bitcoin exceed $150,000 before the end of 2025?",
    "capability": "prediction"
  }'

Response — Basic#

json

{
  "prediction": "YES",
  "confidence": 38,
  "reasoning": "ETF Flow Tracker: Spot ETF inflows averaging $800M/week create structural demand that historically precedes new highs. | Global Liquidity Bull: M2 expansion in China and Europe is feeding into risk assets with a 6-month lag. | Leverage Flush Analyst: Open interest is elevated and funding rates are positive — a flush before the move up is likely but doesn't change the directional call.",
  "voter_summary": "Bull avg: 61 (18 active, 0 SKIP) | Bear avg: 23 (18 active, 0 SKIP) | Neutral: 3 YES / 1 NO / 0 SKIP | Margin: 38pts",
  "domain": "crypto",
  "persona_count": 40,
  "groupthink_warning": false
}

Make Request — With Context#

bash

curl -X POST https://aiprox.dev/api/orchestrate \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -H "X-Spend-Token: $AIPROX_SPEND_TOKEN" \
  -d '{
    "task": "Will the Fed cut rates at its June meeting?\n\nRecent news: CPI printed 2.4% in March, below expectations. Jobs report added 175k jobs, unemployment ticked up to 4.1%. Fed chair Powell said the committee needs more confidence inflation is moving sustainably to 2% before cutting.",
    "capability": "prediction"
  }'

Response — With Context#

json

{
  "prediction": "NO",
  "confidence": 29,
  "reasoning": "Higher-For-Longer Bear: Powell's explicit signal of needing more confidence, combined with still-solid employment, gives the committee cover to hold. | Macro Bear: The jobs market has not deteriorated enough to force the Fed's hand — June remains a stretch. | Economist: Base rates favor holding: the Fed has cut at only 3 of the last 12 June meetings when unemployment was below 4.2%.",
  "voter_summary": "Bull avg: 31 (17 active, 1 SKIP) | Bear avg: 60 (18 active, 0 SKIP) | Neutral: 1 YES / 3 NO / 0 SKIP | Margin: 29pts",
  "domain": "macro",
  "persona_count": 40,
  "groupthink_warning": false
}

Example Prompts#

text

Will Bitcoin exceed $150,000 before the end of 2025?

text

Will Ethereum outperform Bitcoin over the next 90 days?
Context: ETH/BTC ratio is at 0.038, a 4-year low. Pectra upgrade ships next month.

text

Will the S&P 500 be higher than today in 6 months?
Context: Current level 5200. Fed on hold. Q1 earnings beat expectations by 7%.

text

Will there be a US recession before the end of 2026?

text

Will Solana flip Ethereum by market cap before 2027?

Output Fields#

FieldTypeDescriptionpredictionstringYES, NO, or SKIP``confidencenumber1–85. Margin between bull and bear weighted averages.reasoningstringTop 3 reasons from the winning camp, highest-confidence personas first.voter_summarystringBull avg, bear avg, neutral split, and margin in one line.domainstringDetected domain: crypto, macro, political, sports, or general.persona_countnumberAlways 40.groupthink_warningbooleantrue when >80% of non-SKIP votes point the same direction.

Notes#

• SKIP is a valid result. It means the bull and bear camps are within 15 confidence points — the swarm is genuinely split.
• Groupthink warning fires when consensus is very high. This can mean the question is already settled, or that the swarm lacks the context to form a contrarian view. Add news context and re-run.
• Minimum 10 words. Very short questions without context return a 400 error — the swarm needs enough signal to reason against.
• ~30–60 seconds per call. 40 parallel LLM calls run concurrently via DeepSeek.
• Domain weighting. Crypto questions weight crypto-domain personas at 1.5×. Macro questions weight macro experts. General questions use equal weights.

Trust Statement#

SWARM processes your question transiently. Questions and responses are not stored beyond the active request. No authentication or API key required for the default public endpoint.